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LMP Prediction From Generation Trips

Oak Ridge naional Laboratory

Locational marginal prices (LMPs) are influenced by nearby generation and load level. Generators trips could potentially have serious reliability and economic consequences. This study aims to correlate generator trips to changes in market prices based on (LMPs) for next hour and next day and to find how many hours it takes the market to respond and stabilize after the trip event, and the persistence a price increase, if there is any price increase. Price changes near the generator that tripped should correlate the most while those far should correlate less. However, not all cases will show an obvious correlation with the generator trip.

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Fig.1 A Case that shows an obvious correlation to price change

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Fig.2 A Case that does not show correlation to price change